Gold Derby Now Sees Jaafar Jackson as a Golden Globes Contender for “Michael”

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By Mockulus Editorial
October 16, 2026

Awards-tracking site Gold Derby has revised its outlook on Jaafar Jackson’s performance in “Michael,” moving him into the conversation for the Golden Globes and other major awards. In an article published earlier this month, the site acknowledged its original April assessment hadn’t held up, writing that “we may have hit the wrong note.”

What Gold Derby Said

When the film opened in April, Gold Derby’s analysis didn’t expect Jaafar Jackson to be a factor in the Oscar race, according to MJVibe’s summary. The site now says he has “cemented himself as a major contender” at the Golden Globes and Actor Awards, the new name for the SAG Awards.

In Gold Derby’s Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor category for the Globes, he currently ranks fourth in a field where six people get nominated, with odds of about 83 to 84 percent. The figure was 83.8 percent in the report that prompted this story, and has fluctuated slightly in updates since. Those odds sit behind John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), Seth Rogen (The Invite) and Tom Cruise (Digger), and ahead of Jordan Firstman and Brad Pitt. For the Actor Awards, Gold Derby gives him roughly a one-in-three chance of a nomination, at about 34.5 percent, and says he is on the cusp of a bid.

Important Caveats

Gold Derby’s numbers are predictions based on its panel of experts, editors and users, not votes, and they change often. Gold Derby also notes that Lionsgate hasn’t confirmed which Globes category it will submit “Michael” in. The site tracks it under Musical/Comedy, but strategists it consulted were split, with at least one predicting a Drama submission. The 83.8 percent figure applies only to the Musical/Comedy race, so a category switch would change the picture.

At the Oscars, the outlook is more modest. Gold Derby’s latest data has Jaafar Jackson around No. 10 in Best Actor, with co-star Colman Domingo in the top 10 for Best Supporting Actor, and “Michael” itself hovering between about No. 16 and No. 20 for Best Picture. Gold Derby says the key moment will be the Golden Globe nominations on December 7, followed by Oscar nominations on January 21, 2027.

How the Film Was Received

The film’s reception makes the awards path uncertain. Rotten Tomatoes lists it at around 38 percent among critics, and Wikipedia summarizes the reviews as generally negative, with critics praising Jaafar Jackson’s performance but calling the story “sanitized.” Audiences responded very differently, giving it a 97 percent audience score. Gold Derby itself raised the question of how international Globes voters will react to a film some reviewers call sanitized, while noting that audiences worldwide didn’t seem to mind, given the $1.028 billion gross.

Why It Matters

For Jaafar Jackson, whose role in “Michael” was his feature debut, an awards nomination would mark an unlikely path from first-time actor to contender, though the odds are still just forecasts. For the film, strong Globes numbers would give its run an extra chapter after its box office records, streaming debut and planned sequel. Whether voters treat the performance and the film separately is the open question, and the nominations in December will begin to answer it.

Sources: TheWGold Derby’s own predictions and articles, MJVibe, CBR and Screen Rant, & Wikipedia.